Steve Arnott writes an open letter to SNP strategists on the May election
Fellow independenistas
The polls are still looking very good for the SNP in May, but a word of caution is necessary - or rather, three paragraphs of caution, and an urge to action.
Firstly, as the election draws nearer the intensity of the media gaze will, as it always has done for Westminster elections, focus in on 'the main parties' - by which the UK media (and its obedient satellites) mean; the Tories, Labour, Lib-Dems (and UKIP). Despite a victory over the television debates issue, this should not be underestimated
Secondly, while the decisive polling shift to the SNP and away from Labour continues to look real and substantial, it would not be true to say that there has been no Murphy bounce. There has been - even if it is only very small . It's not due to manic Murphy, of course, but to a servile BBC Pacific Quay Pravda and the Daily Rancid. But - and this is what Labour's strategy is based on - it doesn't have to be a big bounce. Labour would only have to continue its current 2-3% point rate of recovery through each of the months of March and April to put a large tranche of Labour seats beyond the ability of the SNP to win.
Lastly, this Labour push will be based on breathtaking lies (we ain't seen nuthin' yet), told to the least politically aware and more conservative (with a small 'c') sections of the working class community, and aimed mainly at that section of the community which still receives its information overwhelmingly from the mainstream media. That 'mainstream' media can be largely relied upon to 'do the business' for Scottish Labour and the Union. We in social media will do our best to be a counterweight to this tendency, but, frankly there are parts of the electorate we just don't reach.
The solution: learn the lessons of the YES referendum where not enough money was spent PRIOR to the official twelve week period inoculating potential, but wavering, YES voters against the inevitable msm assault from the unprincipled supporters of the status quo. 'Memes' are a slippery concept to be sure..but the longer your opponents have to lay down their 'memes' in the neural pathways of a large section of the electorate, the more chance their strategy has of succeeding.
Consequently, if you really, really want to seize this 'once in a lifetime' opportunity to replace Labour as the default party of choice for the mass of working class people in Scotland, do not allow the mainstream media bias to go unchallenged for a second longer. You need to be spending significant tranches of your election budget NOW and going forward - on billboard, bus stop and newspaper advertising, and really good 'through the doors' constituency and national leaflets.
Don't wait till mid-April - it might be too late.
Yours, for a crushing blow to Scotland's Red Tories in May,
Steve Arnott